Phil R. runs a duck farm in California.
On a Tuesday morning in October 2025, his staff noticed “a modest increase in mortality.”
There were eight dead birds in one of their barns.
The next morning, there were a few more than that.
They took samples for testing, and on October 24th received confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu, or H5N1 bird flu.
That Sunday, the duck farm began “depopulating” its flock.
By Wednesday, all 57,000 birds had been destroyed.
This wasn’t Phil’s first encounter with bird flu.
Two years prior, he was forced to euthanize more than 200,000 birds when the same virus hit his farm.
But this time, the outbreak hit in late October, almost a month earlier than the previous winter.
Alarmingly, Phil’s losses are part of a much larger problem hitting right before Thanksgiving.
Since September 1st, 2025, bird flu outbreaks have wiped out 1.2 million turkeys – nearly 20 times more than the same period in 2024.
Chicken farms have lost 5.5 million egg-laying hens – twice as many as last year.
This directly impacts what you’ll pay for Thanksgiving dinner and whether certain items will even be available.
Now, here are the key things you need to know about bird flu, food prices, and protecting your family’s food security.
What Is H5N1 Bird Flu?
H5N1 is a virus that spreads rapidly through poultry and has jumped to other species including dairy cows, wild animals, and even humans.
One infected turkey immediately passes the virus to 25 other birds.
The virus spreads so fast that by the time the first infection is detected, it’s too late to save any nearby birds.
Farmers leave one day with noisy barns and return to complete silence.
Early Preparation Saves Money:
Knowing bird flu affects holiday food prices allows you to buy turkey and eggs early, before prices spike or supplies run short.
Plan ahead and start looking for good deals on holiday turkeys, especially if you have freezer space.
Food Security Knowledge Prevents Panic:
Understanding that bird flu follows seasonal patterns (peaking in winter) helps you plan long-term food storage instead of panic-buying when shortages hit.
For families already struggling with inflation, these price increases make traditional Thanksgiving meals increasingly unaffordable.
Human Health Risk:
By mid-2025, approximately 70 Americans had been infected with H5N1, including at least one death.
The CDC now confirms many human infections are mild or asymptomatic, meaning surveillance systems focused only on severe cases are missing infections.
While properly cooked food is safe, the risk remains for those handling raw poultry or living near infected birds.
So, here are tips for protecting your Thanksgiving and food security:
Purchase your Thanksgiving turkey now and freeze it.
Most turkeys headed to stores are already in transit, but supplies are limited.
Start with at least a 30-day supply of shelf-stable proteins: canned chicken, turkey, beef, pork, dried beans, rice, pasta, and survival food meal pouches.
Expand to 90 days gradually as budget allows – this protects against price spikes and shortages from any cause, not just bird flu.
Stock powdered eggs for baking and cooking since fresh egg prices will remain volatile as long as bird flu circulates.
Rotate your stock regularly using the oldest items first and replacing them to maintain freshness.
Plan alternative proteins for holiday meals: ham, beef roast, pork loin, or lamb as backup if turkey becomes too expensive or unavailable.
Make sure you have long-term food storage, holiday meal backups, and proper food safety knowledge before the next outbreak hits your local supply chain.
And definitely have lots of canned meat.
